Monday, February 25, 2008
Everybody agrees that victories in Ohio and Texas are essential for Hillary Clinton to keep the campaign going. Bill Clinton has helpfully said so. Do the instant obituaries are being written for the Hillary Clinton campaign. The weekend papers were full of comments from inside the campaign about the darkening mood of pessimism. When will she admit its over? Who will tell her? What post-Presidential campaign career ambitions might she have?
But don't forget how much the media has got most things wrong in this topsy-turvy race. And the narrative of the lost Clinton cause is not backed up by the current polls.
The primaries are on Tuesday. A consistent lead in Ohio, usually of eight points, although the Texas race is much closer. But expectations have fallen through the floor for Clinton, even though there seems to be much to play for.
As a result, two victories would now look like one of the great upsets (and could transform the dynamics of the race), despite these long having been states where Clinton was ahead.
The polls Obama may well extend his winning streak on March 4th. He has been consistently winning the ground war, and winning by much more sizeable margins than polling predicts. But in failing to manage expectations, his campaign may be repeating a mistake they made between Iowa and New Hampshire, when 'signed, sealed and delivered' blared out at what everyone thought would be a victory rally.
It wasn't over then. And it isn't now either.
As the Washington clocks strike twelve on 20th January 2009, listen carefully and you might just hear a swooshing sigh of relief travel around the world. The Bush Presidency will not leave the legacy its architects intended. But a critique of what should have been done differently since 2001 is not enough. This blog is about the new ideas which can create a 'new multilateralism' to tackle the global challenges we face.