THE WORLD AFTER BUSH

As the Washington clocks strike twelve on 20th January 2009, listen carefully and you might just hear a swooshing sigh of relief travel around the world.
But a critique of what should have been done differently since 2001 is not enough.
This blog is about the new ideas that can change our world and how a 'new multilateralism' can tackle the global challenges of our age.
Change the World, Reports from the Fabian new year conference



Saturday, February 9, 2008

'Mathematically impossible' for Clinton or Obama to win without super-delegates

The Democrat nomination is going to be decided at the Convention.

That is the prediction of Paul Kane of the Washington Post - though it is easier to find where his point is picked up on political wire - because of how even the race is, and because Dem primaries are not 'winner-take-all'. Unless a neck-and-neck race turns overnight into a landslide, the super-delegates will come into play.


Do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.


Of course, there are lots of versions of that scenario. The elections will have an impact on the super-delegates' choices, especially if either candidate can open up a lead. But both campaigns may shift up a further gear on the micro-targetting and arm-twisting as much as the public campaign.



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The World After Bush

As the Washington clocks strike twelve on 20th January 2009, listen carefully and you might just hear a swooshing sigh of relief travel around the world. The Bush Presidency will not leave the legacy its architects intended. But a critique of what should have been done differently since 2001 is not enough. This blog is about the new ideas which can create a 'new multilateralism' to tackle the global challenges we face.